Research firm Global InfoAnalytics has released its inaugural Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model forecast for the 2028 parliamentary elections in Ghana, projecting a total of 154 seats for the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the data released by the polling organization, the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to secure 100 parliamentary seats. The forecast leaves two constituencies classified as toss-ups, whilst 20 seats remain undisclosed out of the total 276 seats in Parliament.
In terms of percentages across the total 276 parliamentary seats, the NDC holds 55.8 per cent, with the NPP commanding 36.2 per cent. The undisclosed constituencies represent 7.2 per cent of the total composition, and the toss-up seats account for 0.7 per cent.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwa, shared the preliminary projections detailing the initial seat distribution based on the firm’s statistical framework.
The projections offer an early glimpse into political dynamics ahead of the 2028 parliamentary contest, highlighting key constituencies where competition remains tight or undetermined.
According to the regional breakdown data from the research firm, 20 seats remain “not disclosed” across 10 regions, while two seats are categorized as “toss-ups” located specifically in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
A closer look at the regional distribution reveals varying figures across the country. The Eastern Region records the highest number of undisclosed seats with five, followed closely by the Ashanti Region with four undisclosed seats and one toss-up seat. The Western Region accounts for three undisclosed seats, while the Upper East Region registers two.
Meanwhile, single undisclosed seats are distributed across several regions, including the Bono Region—which also shares a single toss-up seat—alongside Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, and Western North regions.
The comprehensive regional matrix accounts for a combined total of 20 undisclosed seats and 2 toss-up seats nationwide. Analysts and political observers continue to monitor these developments as further details regarding the parliamentary seat projections unfold.
By: Rainbowradioonline.com/Ghana