A fresh parliamentary seat projection by research organization Global InfoAnalytics using the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model shows the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) taking a strong lead ahead of the 2028 parliamentary elections.
According to the latest data based on national polling metrics, the NDC is currently projected to secure 153 seats out of the total 276 constituencies across the country. The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) trails behind with 97 projected seats.
The figures reveal that a total of 26 seats remain unallocated under the current model. Out of this unallocated total, 2 parliamentary seats are currently tied between the major political parties, whilst voters in 24 constituencies did not disclose their party choices during the survey.
The breakdown across the regions reflects varied support bases for both political parties. In Greater Accra, the NDC takes a dominant lead with 26 projected seats compared to 8 for the NPP. The Ashanti Region remains a stronghold for the NPP with 35 seats, while the NDC holds 8 seats, with 4 seats listed as undisclosed.
In the Volta Region, the NDC commands a complete sweep, projecting to secure all 18 parliamentary seats. Meanwhile, in the Eastern Region, both parties are running neck-and-neck with 14 seats allocated to the NPP, 14 seats to the NDC, 1 tied seat, and 4 undisclosed.
In the Western Region, the NDC leads with 10 projected seats against 2 for the NPP, alongside 1 tied seat and 4 undisclosed seats. Similarly, the Central Region shows the NDC ahead with 13 seats to the NPP’s 10 seats.
In the northern belt, the NDC holds strong projections in the Northern Region with 11 seats against 6 for the NPP, while the NPP holds 5 seats in the North East Region against 1 seat for the NDC. The Upper East Region favours the NDC with 9 seats to 2 for the NPP, and the Upper West Region projects 6 seats for the NDC against 4 for the NPP.
Further regional projections indicate that in the Savannah Region, the NDC holds 6 seats to 1 for the NPP, and in Oti, the NDC takes 5 seats while the NPP has 2, with 2 seats undisclosed. In Western North, the NDC leads with 7 seats compared to 1 for the NPP, with 1 undisclosed seat.
In the Bono Region, the NDC is projected to win 6 seats to the NPP’s 3, with 3 seats undisclosed. In Bono East, the NDC leads with 8 seats against 3 for the NPP. Lastly, in Ahafo, the NDC takes 5 seats while the NPP secures 1 seat.
Lead researcher Mussa Dankwa noted that this comprehensive seat tracking using the MRP model provides significantly more granular data than previously recorded.
They highlighted that the 24 undisclosed seats remain completely unallocated to any political party or independent candidates, leaving room for potential shifts in parliamentary strength depending on how those undecided voters decide.
By: Rainbowradioonline.com/Ghana
