Latest polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed that New Patriotic Party (NPP) is likely to retain the Ejisu seat.
The research firm however indicated that the party will struggle to win convincingly.
Executive Director Musah Dankwah, and the Head of Polls for Global InfoAnalytics explained that the former who is contesting as an independent candidate will be a threat to the NPP.
The NPP’s candidate received 50.6% of the votes, while Mr Owusu Aduomi received 47.5%, making the race “too close to call”.
“The polls are shocking, indeed very shocking, currently, the NPP is leading by a whisker, less than a margin of error, 50.6% lead in the poll. They are not losing the seat but leading by a margin of error. The lead is not comfortable.
“Kwabena Owusu Aduomi 47.5%. This race is too close to call. What we have seen is that the NPP again is divided, about 64% of NPP voters are voting for their own.
“About 34% are voting for Aduomi. Aduomi is getting 66% of the support from floating voters and he’s getting 92% of NDC support, and 95% of other party supporters. The only advantage the NPP has is that they are leading amongst their own, other than that Aduomi is leading across the board.
“It would have been different if Aduomi hadn’t contested, he’s a threat. NDC guys are rallying behind Aduomi and that is proving very deadly.”
The New Patriotic Party on Saturday, April 13 conducted the parliamentary primary, with Kwabena Boateng, emerging victorious as the party’s parliamentary candidate for Ejisu ahead of the upcoming December elections.
The Electoral Commission has scheduled April 30, for the by-election.
The by-election is being held following the death of the Member of Parliament for Ejisu, John Ampontuah Kumah.
The National Democratic Congress (NDC), the opposition party withdrew from tye contest.
The NPP is being represented by candidate, Kwabena Boateng, who is the second Vice Chairman for the Ejisu Constituency
The former MP for the area, Kwabena Owusu Aduomi is contesting as an independent candidate.
Below is the full analysis
A day after Ejisu poll was published, many analysts are pondering over the numbers and others are perplexed about the poll which sampled 1351 voters from 19 out of 28 electoral areas of the constituency. The sample of the electoral areas were drawn from heavy, middle and low density populated areas of the constituency, thus ensuring that areas covered are representative of the constituency and allowing us to carry out analysis of the rest not polled using Multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) analysis to carry out deeper understandimg of the constituency.
In the special Ejisu poll, the NPP’s candidate, Kwabena Boateng, leads the poll with 50.6% and Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, an Independent candidate, has 47.5% of the votes. The NDC is not contesting the by-election. The poll’s margin of error is 3.42%. As the gap between the candidates is 3.1%, which is withing the poll’s margin of error, the race is statistically tied, meaning any of the candidates has a chance of winning the election on Tuesday.
The poll shows that 70% of the respondents were NPP voters, 9% were NDC, 15% were floating voters, 2% other parties and 4% did not disclose their party affiliation. However, the most significant danger for the ruling party is that 36% of their own voters intend to vote for the Independent candidate, a former MP for Ejisu. The poll also shows that there is massive coalition against NPP in the constituency as 92% of NDC voters intend to vote for Aduomi in the absence of NDC candidate. Again, 66% of floating voters intend to vote for Aduomi, 95% of other parties voters will also vote Aduomi and even among those who declined to disclose their party affiliation, who are a proxy of NPP voters in the constituency, 60% intend to vote for Aduomi.
Our model suggests that if the NPP is able to hold their nerve and get at least 70% of their base to vote for Kwabena Boateng, then, it is likely the NPP could win the election. However, if support Kwabena Boateng among NPP voters falls to near 60%, while Aduomi hold his nerve among other parties support or even better, he could deliver a seismic shock to the ruling party on Tuesday and by that altering which party becomes majority if he decided to caucus with the NDC. However, this is unlikely in my view but he could then become most powerful MP in the august house.
The NPP has all to do on Tuesday and their ability to increase turnout while maintaining 70% support from their base for Kwabena Boateng will be crucial. Anything short may not be good enough. If the NPP wins by a whisker, it could dent a huge blow for them in the region and could embolden other independent candidates to seriously consider the idea in many constituencies.
Now on the presidential poll and matters arising, I have had a queries it. There are suggestions that the poll is confounding because the Independent candidate doing so well but Alan Kyerematen not matching his numbers. The answer is simple. Presidential election is not parliamentary election so, we should not expect people voting for Aduomi to automatically vote for Alan. NDC voters are also voting for Aduomi and will certainly vote for Mahama and not Alan. Alan support, which is 13%, was largely from NPP.
Ejisu is poll is also confirming a pattern observed nationally, which is DMB is losing some of the base to Alan Kyeremanten. Data from 2020 elections shows that Nana Addo won Ejisu with 82% of the votes but DMB is currently doing 70%, representing a drop of 10%. The poll also shows that 9% of NPP voters in Ejisu intend to vote for Alan, 2% for Mahama and 88% for Dr Bawumia.
In summary, Ejisu by-election could go either way but at the moment NPP has the edge.
By: Rainbowradioonline.com/Ghana
